Tulsa Weather: Climbing temperatures, spotty storms, and building heat stress
A convectively induced area of vorticity is expected to evolve from thunderstorms across northeast Texas and move into parts of southeastern Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening hours.
While the exact trajectory of this disturbance should remain southeast of the Tulsa metro, scattered storms will be possible just about anywhere as this energy lifts into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during this timeframe.
Locations across southeastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas will have a higher chance for showers and storms. Due to the tropical airmass, heavy rainfall is again likely with any mature storms.
A Flood Watch will be underway for these areas of far eastern and southeastern Oklahoma until Tuesday morning.
The probability of a few showers or storms in Tulsa remains near 20%. Higher chances for a few more storms are likely across far southeastern Oklahoma.
Toasty Afternoon Temperatures
Afternoon highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s, with heat index values reaching into the upper 90s and winds staying very light.
A mixture of sunshine and a few clouds is likely with more cloud cover across southeastern Oklahoma.
Lower Rain Chances Early Week
Tuesday and Wednesday will bring a few scattered showers or storms with the daytime heating process.
The probability for storms will remain near or below 20% across most of the region but may trend slightly higher along the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line early Tuesday morning.
Morning lows both days will be in the 70s with highs in the lower to mid-90s. You’ll notice increasing heat index values Tuesday and Wednesday but still mostly below heat advisory criteria. Regardless, values near 100 to 104 will cause heat stress.
Midweek Storm Complex Stays North
Late Wednesday afternoon, a complex of storms is likely to develop across the High Plains, moving southeast into portions of Nebraska and northern Kansas as a cluster of strong to severe storms.
A weak front is expected to develop across the Central Plains and may attempt a southward slide early Thursday morning but should remain slightly north of our area.
We’ll include only low-end probabilities for these storms reaching our region, as the complex should dissipate once the mid-level ridge begins to influence our weather.
Thursday morning lows will be in the mid-70s with afternoon highs in the mid-90s. Heat index values are expected to climb Thursday, ranging from 100 to 105. A few areas may meet criteria for heat advisories.
Weekend Heat and Humidity Build
From Friday through the weekend, heat stress will increase as daytime highs reach the mid-90s and heat index values approach 105 or higher.
A mid-level ridge should keep organized storm activity away from the state, but a few isolated or afternoon pop-up storms may occur across extreme eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Morning lows will be in the mid-70s with afternoon highs in the mid-90s. Heat index values will be nearing 105 or higher and heat advisories will be possible.
Extended Outlook: Hotter, Drier Pattern
Most extended data now support the expansion of the subtropical ridge over a larger portion of the southern Plains, including much of Oklahoma, in the next few weeks.
The pattern should keep organized storms at bay while ushering in increasing heat and humidity across eastern Oklahoma and surrounding areas.
Lake Levels
Area lake levels remain high but are slowly improving. Check ahead as high water levels may impact some recreational areas.
The Morning Weather Podcast:
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We're working to resolve these challenges as soon as possible and appreciate your patience. We apologize for the inconvenience and hope to be back soon. Thank you for your understanding.
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Emergency Info: Outages Across Oklahoma:
Northeast Oklahoma has various power companies and electric cooperatives, many of which have overlapping areas of coverage. Below is a link to various outage maps.
- PSO Outage Map
- OG&E Outage Map
- VVEC Outage Map
- Indian Electric Cooperative (IEC) Outage Map
- Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives Outage Map — (Note: Several Smaller Co-ops Included)